The Light Traffic Index (LTI) rose 1.3% in July and is roughly where it was a year ago. The Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) eased 0.2% in the month but is up a stronger 1.6% year on year.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides up to a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. Light traffic has been noticeably lower in recent months, likely reflecting people choosing to drive less as a result of higher fuel prices. In July, it tentatively turned a corner higher.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports. It is typically more volatile than light traffic. The Heavy Traffic Index continues to trend higher despite a small dip in July.