The Light Traffic Index (LTI) fell 1.3% in June and is 0.9% higher than a year ago. The more volatile Heavy Traffic Index (HTI) also fell 1.3% in the month, but is up 3.0% y/y.

Light traffic (motorbikes, cars and vans) is generally a good indicator of the state of demand, as opposed to production. It typically provides a six-month lead on momentum in the economy, with variation reflecting discretionary spending on outings, movement of couriers and tradespeople etc. 

The trend in light traffic is very mildly upward over recent months. In per capita terms (using ANZ population forecasts), light traffic is going sideways.

Heavy traffic data (mostly trucks, but also buses) tends to provide a steer on production GDP in real time, as it captures both goods production and freight associated with both wholesale and retail trade, as well as exports.  

The HTI fell 1.3% in June (figure 2) but is still trending higher, suggesting the economic recovery continues. It is up 3.0% versus a year ago (three-month average). The per capita HTI is also trending higher after a sharp fall in the middle of last year coinciding with recession in the GDP data, but the June month was soft.